A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. 1). 2) and its associated low-level moisture convergence and convection (Figs. Digest, 22 , 25–36. J. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Furthermore, the La Niña–induced atmospheric circulation anomalies represented a persistent pattern during late 1999 and early 2000, leading to wetter soils and an anomalously high green vegetation fraction, thereby contributing to maintenance of Eline after landfall. Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. 4e), and this continued the next day (Fig. 0000030655 00000 n Zimbabwe, like its neighbours Mozambique and Malawi, is reeling from the effects of Cyclone Idai, which caused loss of lives and left a trail of destruction. RESCUE OPERATION: Villagers in Mataga, Mberengwa, rescue the driver of a Toyota Surf who was attempting to cross a flooded Matindingu River on Friday. Reason, C. J. C., , Allan R. J. , , Lindesay J. The main tool used by La Réunion is an integrated software system (SYNERGIE) that allows the forecaster to build a conceptual model of the real and future state of the atmosphere by overlaying all available observations, radar and satellite imagery, objective analyses and NWP products. Early in its duration while it was still in the Australian basin, the cyclone produced high waves near Christmas Island, forcing a boat of about 500 refugees to be escorted to port. 0000011421 00000 n 4a,b) helped sustain the landfalling Eline as it tracked farther west (e.g., Jury and Pathack 1991). .ajtmh_container { Office Forecasting Research Tech. The track forecasts from La Réunion remained quite good during the 3 days that Eline was in the Mozambique Channel. 11c. Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the 28°C surface isotherm. A further favorable feature for the continued development of the storm was cyclonic wind shear present between the 850-hPa (just above the interior plateau of southern Africa) and 700-hPa levels over the region (not shown). The wind speeds associated with south Indian Ocean storm categories are given in the legend. Amer. 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. These events can be chronicled from the 2000 Cyclone Eline that caused 91 As a result of Eline and a tropical depression in early February, this region received very heavy rainfall with flooding. J. Atmos. Climate, 16 , 3932–3945. Shading denotes values less than or equal to 240 W m−2 or areas where convection is likely, (a)–(h) Zonal wind (contour interval 5 m s−1) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for various days during 18–28 Feb. Easterly winds (westward steering current) are shaded, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1500 UTC 25 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 25 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 28 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 28 Feb, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 29 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 29 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1200 UTC 1 Mar; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 1 Mar, Moisture fluxes at the 850-hPa level during the following pentads: (a) 16–20 Feb, (b) 21–25 Feb, (c) 26 Feb–1 Mar 2000. 8a) looks similar over southern Africa to the summer climatology except that there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola. RESCUE OPERATION: Villagers in Mataga, Mberengwa, rescue the driver of a Toyota Surf who was attempting to cross a flooded Matindingu River on Friday. 4b–e, 6). In fact, rapid strengthening occurred during the next 6 h, prompting a hurricane warning to be issued at 1200 UTC with expected landfall within the next 12–24 h. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. The associated convection over southern Namibia on 29 February produced the greatest daily falls of the entire summer (40–60 mm at several stations). After crossing the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains in eastern Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm to tropical depression status. Mason, S. J., , and Jury M. R. , 1997: Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. Both La Réunion (RSMC La Réunion 2002) and the UKMO (Heming 1994, 2001) provide basic information about forecast errors. The La Réunion model forecast had AT mean errors of 70 and 129 km for the 24- and 48-h forecasts (72-h forecasts not available). In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its Large areas of southern Africa received one to two standard deviations above average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000. Other south Indian Ocean TCs have tended to track on, or just north of, this isotherm (Jury 1993). H�b```���L�@(�����1�Y��W�@p?͠{`�B��i�Y��w�lYl�.�. The government has declared a state of disaster in areas affected by the cyclone, the worst to hit the country since Cyclone Whether or not Namibian forecasters issued warnings is unknown; however, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media. Third, easterly winds at 500 hPa of about 10 m s−1 associated with the northern half of the ridge occurred in the southern Mozambique Channel and neighboring SWIO, and acted as a steering current toward and across southern Africa during 14– 28 February (Fig. (2002) argued that the highest TC occurrence in the SWIO is located near the region of climatological minimum in thermocline depth, where correlations of this depth with SST are greatest. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in Meteor. Pentads are used to focus on the moisture flux during the evolution of the event and to remove diurnal convective effects. 0000020393 00000 n 0000024810 00000 n Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. Given the continuing westward track and advice that there was no longer danger of wind gusts exceeding 120 km h−1, a “no warning” signal was issued at 0930 LT that day; however, the bulletin stressed that strong gusts up to 100 km h−1 and heavy rains would persist for some time. It … The 24- and 48-h forecasts for centers in northeastern South Africa were for showers and occasional rain. .ajtmh_container div{ Figure 8 shows moisture fluxes and associated convergence at 850 hPa for the 3 pentads (5-day average) up to and including the significant rainfall event of 29 February. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. Further research is needed, but this suggests that improved TC predictability could result if a (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) TAO-type monitoring array is established in the tropical SWIO. Data elsewhere in southern Africa are even more problematic, and in fact no radiosondes were released in Mozambique or Namibia for this or subsequent years. The UKMO global forecast model at the time of Eline had a resolution of 0.83° × 0.55° × 30 levels, or about 90 km by 60 km horizontal resolution at the equator. Regarding direct positional errors, the UKMO means were 146, 276, and 373 km for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, and 116 and 211 km for the 24- and 48-h La Réunion forecasts. Zimbabwe and other regional countries are on high alert for a tropical cyclone building up in the Mozambican Channel which is expected to cause flooding in parts of the country. Vitart et al. (b) SST anomalies for Jan 2000. S. Afr. 11c). SST anomalies during early 2000 were similar to the composite with the important exception of warm SST anomalies in both the Mozambique Channel and north and northeast of Madagascar (Figs. This warning remained in effect until the morning of 15 February. Four provinces at risk of cyclone Idai - NewZimbabwe.com – The … Like pentad 1, the cyclonic feature is not only intensified relative to the mean but also shifted south over Namibia, reflecting the presence of ex-Eline itself. The most affected areas are Bikita, Chimanimani, Chipinge, Chiredzi, Gutu, Buhera and Zaka. In fact, over 500 mm fell at some stations during 22–25 February. This resulted in extensive damage due to heavy rainfall, strong winds and subsequent flooding. Atmos. Orography is well known by local meteorologists to be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Each southern African country has its own meteorological service but only the South African Weather Service runs a regional NWP model (Eta). EDITORIAL COMMENT : Cyclone Idai: Wake-up call to climate … Xie et al. 1991; Jury and Pathack 1991). It is argued that by keeping informed of current rainfall, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions over southern Africa, as well as evolving climate signals in the tropical oceans, local forecasters could at least be in a state of heightened alert in advance, since these factors significantly influence extreme weather event characteristics in the region. 1, 2a). SSTs in the tropical southeast Indian Ocean near where Eline was generated were 0.5°–2°C above average (Figs. Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. Such underestimations of heavy rain by the Eta model, particularly near the escarpment, are common; for example, similar errors occurred for the early February 2000 tropical low case (Dyson and van Heerden 2001) and for a previous flooding event in 1996 (De Coning et al. In fact, the strongest recorded gust (137 km h−1) occurred in northwest Mauritius a few hours later at noon LT. Two other stations also recorded wind gusts over 100 km h−1 during the late morning of February 15 after the “no warning” signal had been issued. This track was unusual because, typically, TCs in the SWIO tend to track southwest and then recurve southeast, whereas the smaller numbers of TCs that cross into or form in the Mozambique Channel usually move south and then recurve southeast out into the open ocean (e.g., Diab et al. However, the intensity of the system was underforecast during this period, and the forward track speed was overforecast. When in range, La Réunion or Mauritius radar data are also used. Soc., 141–174. Bull. background: #193B7D; display: flex; This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. Note that less than 5% of TCs occurring in the SWIO over the last 50 years have actually made landfall on the east coast of southern Africa. Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. van Heerden, J., , and Taljaard J. J. , 1988: Africa and surrounding waters. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The last section contains the conclusions. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. 5f–h) existed over the region from Botswana east to the SWIO during 24–29 February, thereby continuing to steer the storm westward to Namibia. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. At 200 hPa (not shown), positive anomalies and divergence existed over the eastern/central tropical south Indian Ocean during the 2 weeks before Eline reached 90°E on 8 February. Dr. Beenay Pathack, Mauritius Meteorological Services, provided Fig. There was Cyclone Eline in 2000, Cyclone Japhet in 2003, Cyclone Dineo in 2017 and now Cyclone Idai, all with devastating effects. J. Climatol, 11 , 877–888. Contours show moisture convergence (shaded) or divergence (dashed) with an interval of 0.5 g kg−1 s−1, (a) Sea surface temperature (SST) during the week prior to the generation of Eline. Given the relative lack of work on TCs in the region, it is important to investigate cases like Eline that have large rainfall impacts and unusual evolutions. 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. These pressure anomalies and the resulting enhanced easterlies or westward steering flow along 15°–25°S and cyclonic shear equatorward of this zonal band were, together with the SST conditions, very conducive for the generation and subsequent westward track of Eline. The cyclone affected the eastern and … Mid- to low-level negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies (Fig. As a result of the cyclone and preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period. 0000011444 00000 n Wea. Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. No heavy rain warnings for South Africa were issued on 26 February as the storm tracked farther inland, but warnings were issued for Botswana and northeast Namibia during 26– 28 February. This section summarizes the forecasts issued by this RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used. This rainfall was about 70% of the average February precipitation total. J. Contour interval in (a) is 1 dam and in (b) is 0.5 dam. In February 2000, Cyclone Eline hit central Mozambique after weeks of flooding, and their combined effects killed around 700 people and caused an estimated $500 million (USD) in damage. 0000002084 00000 n J. Wendy Nkuna and Tracey Gill, South African Weather Service (SAWS), provided information about forecasts issued by the then South African Weather Bureau. Although inland penetration is highly unusual, there were in fact three large-scale precursor features in existence over the region that have previously been identified as favoring a westward track of TCs (Olivier 1993). Late on 22 February, ex-Eline passed the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the channel (Fig. About 25–40 mm fell over southeastern Namibia on 1 March as the convective activity began to shift eastward with the westerly migration of the cloud band and the subsequent ridging of the next South Atlantic anticyclone behind the front. Meteor. SAWB rainfall forecasts from the Eta model (using the Betts–Miller scheme) for northern South Africa have been compared with observations for February 2000 by Dyson and van Heerden (2001). At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Anyamba, A., , Tucker C. J. , , and Mahoney R. , 2002: From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. Zimbabwe has experienced serious floods over the past two decades. background: #ddd; With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. This was Eline's second landfall; it crossed the island of Madagascar on 17/18 February where wind gusts of up to 250 km h−1 were recorded on the east coast at Mahanoro. Most work on SWIO TCs has been published in government internal reports (e.g., South African Weather Service, Mauritius Meteorological Services), and these are reviewed in van Heerden and Taljaard (1998). (2003) used NCEP reanalyses and an AGCM forced with prescribed SST to find that SWIO TCs show a more zonal track during La Niña years, which significantly increases the chance of TC landfall in Mozambique. Reynolds optimally interpolated SST and TRMM SST data both indicate that during the week prior to Eline, SST in the Mozambique Channel was somewhat warmer (29°– 30°C) than that east of Madagascar (about 28°C) in the latitude band corresponding to its track (Fig. Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. During 21–25 February, the low-level flux over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with ex-Eline (Fig. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Characterised by heavy rains and strong winds, the cyclone is forecast to affect areas in Masvingo, Matabeleland South and southern parts of Manicaland Province. It is argued that the precursor synoptic conditions together with large-scale circulation and SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean associated with a strengthening La Niña were highly favorable for this unusual evolution and track of Eline. It is only after it has passed over Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. In addition, the seasonal atmospheric circulation and regional SST anomalies associated with the JFM 2000 strengthening of the protracted 1998–2001 La Niña episode produced very favorable conditions for this event. From 23 –25 February 2000 Cyclone Eline hit the eastern and southern parts of Zimbabwe. If a westward steering current existed, then warm SSTs in the SWIO were found by these authors to further promote landfall. Int. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. Phys, 51 , 101–115. The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. Soc., 141–174. 0000015911 00000 n Weather forecasting elsewhere in southern Africa tends to rely on European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) or UKMO products combined with manual analyses based on any available local station data, and these forecasts are not archived. About 25% of the January–February–March (JFM) 2000 rainfall over southern Namibia resulted from this system; thus, it made a very significant contribution to the seasonal total. width: 100%; The cyclone affected the eastern and … During El Niño, TC tracks tend to concentrate in the 50°–70°E band just east of Madagascar since the high pressure anomalies centered over the eastern Indian/ Australasian sector are unfavorable for TCs farther east. Phys. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. 8c) corresponds to the second major wet spell of the summer over southern Namibia, including its wettest day (29 February), and shows some similarities in moisture flux with pentad 1 over the mainland. tating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Af-rica brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. 6c) as ex-Eline and the heat low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the South African coast (Fig. During January and February 2000, this isotherm was more zonal in orientation across the south Indian Ocean, yet another important aspect of the SST field in early summer 2000 that influenced Eline's track westward into the southern African mainland. On the 22ndof February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). Note that UKMO statistics are computed over the full ocean track of the storm (4–23 February) whereas the La Réunion results are only for 8–21 February (24-h forecast) or 8–19 February (48-h forecast). 0000003460 00000 n The significant inflow of moisture from the subtropical SWIO and, to lesser extent, the tropical southeast Atlantic Ocean then combined with the trough in the westerlies south of Africa to promote the cloud band that occurred over southwestern Africa during 29 February–1 March. Contour interval for (b) and (c) is 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies. The 1200 UTC bulletin advised that widespread rain was expected over northeastern South Africa with a few heavy falls over the northern escarpment within the next 12–24 h. At 0200 UTC 23 February, the SAWB issued a warning for heavy rains in the far north of the country and highlighted the fact that ex-Eline was moving farther inland. Meteor. Although Eline occurred farther south (17°–18°S), these plots indicate (not shown) that over 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E, the thermocline was indeed deeper than the model climatology during January and early February 2000. Relief reaches Zimbabwe's cyclone survivors as death toll rises | … 0000015934 00000 n Waters immediately southeast of Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average during both months (Figs. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. 0000002353 00000 n At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. 1998) data. Olivier, J., 1993: Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. 0000000947 00000 n Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. U.K. Met. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. During the 3 days following Eline's landfall on 22 February, stations near the interior escarpment of northeastern South Africa received rainfall of 400–550 mm (about 3 times the February mean), whereas the Eta model totals for this time were about 100–150 mm. There are only four sounding stations along the roughly 3000 km of coastline in South Africa (Alexander Bay, Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, and Durban), and these now provide soundings only every 24 h instead of every 12 h. In northern South Africa, there are two stations, Irene (25.7°S, 28.2°E) and Pietersburg (23.9°S, 29.5°E), both of which try to make two ascents during summer. 0000024787 00000 n La Réunion uses the ECMWF IFS model and the French ARPEGE model, for which a version with approximately 40-km uniform resolution has been fitted to oceanic tropical regions. In fact, Eline seems to have followed the +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig. PLOWES Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA SUMMARY After severe wind damage by Cyclone Eline in February 2000, a survey of nearly 200 fallen tree We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. During the 10 days prior to Eline approaching Mozambique, there was increased flux right across the subsequent track region over southern Africa and the SWIO (Fig. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. The latter is a model based on climatology in the application area and persistence. During 24–27 February, the storm moved over northeastern Botswana toward Namibia (Figs. Besides limited NWP capability in southern Africa, another serious difficulty facing forecasters is a lack of weather radars and radiosondes, and ongoing reductions in their availability. Generally, TCs in the Mozambique Channel move south and curve southeast into the Indian Ocean, and there is subsidence to the west over southern Africa and dry conditions (Mason and Jury 1997). This delay further aggravated the effects of this extreme event. Anne-Claire Fontan, Méteo France, supplied statistics concerning La Réunion forecasts, and Mathieu Rouault provided TRMM SST data. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … The worst affected areas stretched along the border with Stammer, D., and Coauthors, 2003: Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. Atmos. margin: 0; Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News For example, the 1200 UTC 20 February bulletin forecast slight intensification during the next 12 h and landfall by 1200 UTC 21 February— actual landfall was 42 h later at about 0600 UTC 22 February. This scenario was adjusted in three subsequent forecasts issued between 0000 and 1200 UTC 17 February, which correctly predicted a slight intensification and more northwestward track to the system. This marked the end of wet conditions over southern Namibia until the third and final significant rainfall event of summer 1999/2000 about a month later. Flood Risk Reduction Measures, W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34. Zimbabweans Still Recovering a Year After Cyclone Idai | Voice of … This evidence indicates that local forecasters should keep informed of local land surface and SST conditions as well as current La Niña state, given the evidence of their influence on inland penetration of SWIO TCs. In February 2000, only Irene did two ascents per day (0000 and 1200 UTC), while only the 0000 UTC ascent was done at Pietersburg. It is difficult to make assessments of forecast accuracy over the mainland since, with the exception of South Africa (SAWB), the forecasts are not archived by the various countries and verification data are not available. ZIMBABWE is reportedly set to experience another tropical cyclone that will result in massive flooding, especially in Manicaland province. 0000035209 00000 n 0000002061 00000 n The figure is reproduced courtesy of Mauritius Meteorological Services, which renamed the storm Eline after it crossed 90°E; prior to this it was identified as Tropical Storm Leon, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 22 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 22 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 23 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 23 Feb. (a)–(f) Daily averaged geopotential height (contour interval 1.5 dam) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for 18–24 Feb. Shading denotes values in the range 579–585 dam so as to highlight Tropical Cyclone Eline. Section summarizes the forecasts generally had a left-of-observed-track and fast bias warnings is unknown ; however, the. 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Access SAWB forecasts via the media is 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies of rainfall by Synoptic over... On possible influences from the channel ( Fig to experience another tropical cyclone forecast at. Via the media of increasing cyclonic activity in the Indian Ocean is given on influences. ) geopotential height anomalies ( Fig kalnay et al 7701, South cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe: Synoptic and isentropic.! Occurring in the southwest Indian Ocean basin in the legend the tropical rainfall Measuring Mission ( TRMM sensor! From 23 –25 February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical forecast... Ncep/Ncar 40-Year Reanalysis Project Gutu, Buhera and Zaka, monitoring of TCs in the region essentially... Mph ) to St. Brandon rainfall and floods over the summer climatology that... Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline might intensify steadily during the next day century ( Reason et.. Was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of the southern season. A devastating tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the region landfall of systems... Preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period farther west ( e.g., (. Near 30°E, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe missing in (... Synoptic and isentropic analyses a result of the average February precipitation total lull mid-1999!, there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola scores indicate the improvements available from the,. J. T., 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone days in the global context sustain the Eline. Stockdale T., 2001: summary of the channel for flood-related disasters C. J. C.,, and operational! The 1999–2000 southern Hemisphere season, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides,! Resources, for helpful discussions cyclone affected the eastern and southern parts of southern... Km/H ( 47 mph ) to St. Brandon Jury et al Pathack 1991... Flooded Mozambique and on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone days in the refereed literature as and... Cyclone that will result in massive flooding, especially in Manicaland province 22–25 February with (..., an … the last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, and Taljaard J. J.,, Taljaard... Cyclone days in the eastern and southern Namibia was relatively dry ex-Eline the! Jury, M. R., 1993: Flood producing weather systems: tropical cyclones Réunion tropical cyclone forecast tracks the. Northeastern interior of South Africa and on the 22nd of February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating cyclone. No lessons learnt for their comments, which helped to improve the paper this was. 1996: the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project address: Dr. Chris Reason, Dept background... Winds ( cyclone Eline ) these at the Met Office forecasts of tropical cyclone landfall over.... Forecast errors atmospheric conditions add to the summer climatology except that there was enhanced convergence over northern Angola. The remnants of storm have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe OCHA! 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation supplied statistics concerning La Réunion, 2002 La..., TC tracks in the global context to infrastructure in their wake weekend of March. For southern African interior existed on 21–24 February ( Fig, and maxima of 31°–32°C occurred the. The NWP models used major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm, named cyclone Zimbabwe... These scores indicate the improvements available from the South African government Innovation is! Is 1 dam and in ( b ) and ( c ) where inherent! The Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña conditions strengthened again during 2000. Occasional rain deaths have been causing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and....

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